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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006


BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS NEAR 24.8N 80.4W AT
30/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 15 MILES...25 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ISLAMORADA
FLORIDA AND ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...SOUTH OF MIAMI FLORIDA.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 KT. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE CROSSING THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND REACHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
MIDNIGHT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN
THE NE AND SE QUADRANTS AND WITHIN 40 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT.
BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALREADY
SPREAD ACROSS S FLORIDA AHEAD OF THE CENTER. MOST OF THE RAIN
BANDS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT5/WTNT35
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

Haciendo entrada en la Florida

HurricaneMaster_PR wrote:Haciendo entrada en la Florida

Mucho mas débil de lo que se habia anticipado, al menos un respiro para los residentes Miami y de toda Florida....

000
WTNT35 KNHC 300555
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

...ERNESTO MAKES SECOND FLORIDA LANDFALL OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH ON THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTHWARD...AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND
NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA...INCLUDING ALL THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO
CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE
BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE
25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES... 25 KM...EAST
OF FLAMINGO FLORIDA AND ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MIAMI FLORIDA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
REMAINING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. HOWEVER... RAINBANDS CONTAINING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ONSHORE TODAY IN THE WARNING AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF
ERNESTO OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE BAHAMAS. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD WELL IN ADVANCE OF
ERNESTO THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS TODAY. THIS COULD
BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN
MARYLAND...AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...25.2 N...80.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

...ERNESTO INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS AFFECTING THE
FLORIDA KEYS...FLORIDA BAY...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST
HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND
NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH ON THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTHWARD...AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND
NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER...INCLUDING ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD
TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE
BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED BY DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR LATITUDE 25.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST OR IN NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTY FLORIDA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM...
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA AND ABOUT 90 MILES...145
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.
A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
REMAINING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. HOWEVER... RAINBANDS CONTAINING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ONSHORE TODAY IN THE WARNING AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER. RECENTLY A WIND GUST TO 58 MPH WAS REPORTED AT THE
FOWEY ROCKS C-MAN STATION...AND WINDS GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...AND OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTIES.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF
ERNESTO OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE BAHAMAS. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD WELL IN ADVANCE OF
ERNESTO THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS TODAY. THIS COULD
BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN
MARYLAND...AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...25.6 N...80.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

000
WTNT25 KNHC 300836
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
0900 UTC WED AUG 30 2006

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST
HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND
NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH ON THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTHWARD...AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND
NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER...INCLUDING ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD
TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE
BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 80.9W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 25SW 25NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 80.9W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 80.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 27.2N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 29.5N 80.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 32.2N 79.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 34.7N 78.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 38.5N 78.7W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...180NE 100SE 20SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 41.5N 80.0W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 80.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

albertopr wrote:


Mucho mas débil de lo que se habia anticipado, al menos un respiro para los residentes Miami y de toda Florida....

Y un respiro para mi pq sino no me iban a poder venir a buscar pa celebrar mi cumple por la lluvia. En PR no me hubiese importado pero aca esto no se da todos los dias!!

By the way, ayer cogi mi primera clase de meteorologia y hoy entrego mi primera asignacion junto con mi primer la q tomé el viernes pasado. I LOVE IT!!

000
WTNT35 KNHC 301507
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 24...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

...CORRECTED RAINFALL STATEMENT...

...ERNESTO WEAKENS AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BONITA
BEACH ON THE WEST COAST INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD
TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD
AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA NORTHWARD AND
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST OR
ABOUT 55 MILES... 85 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
AND ABOUT 115 MILES...190 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SARASOTA FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY ALONG THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST WHILE ERNESTO IS OVER LAND
BUT SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF
ERNESTO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...26.4 N...80.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
WTCA45 TJSJ 301504
TCPSP5

BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 24 NWS
TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT MIERCOLES 30 DE AGOSTO DE 2006

...ERNESTO SE DEBILITA A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE MAS TIERRA
ADENTRO...

A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL SUR DE
SEBASTIAN INLET HACIA EL SUR HASTA ALREDEDOR DE LA PENINSULA DE LA
FLORIDA HASTA LA PLAYA BONITA EN LA COSTA OESTE INCLUYENDO EL LAGO
OKEECHOBEE Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA HA SIDO DESCONTINUADA.

A LAS 11 AM EDT...LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE EL RIO SAVANNAH
HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CAPE FEAR CAROLINA DEL NORTE HA SIDO
DESCONTINUADA.

A LAS 11 AM EDT...UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EXTENDIDO
HACIA EL NORTE Y ESTA AHORA EN EFECTO DESDE SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA
HACIA EL NORTE Y NORESTE A LO LARGO DE CAPE FEAR CAROLINA DEL NORTE.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA.

A LAS 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL ERNESTO
SE ESTIMABA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 80.9 OESTE O
COMO A 55 MILLAS...85 KM...OESTE-SUROESTE DE WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
Y COMO A 115 MILLAS...190 KM...ESTE-SURESTE DE SARASOTA FLORIDA.

LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CERCA DE 10 MPH
Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL CONTINUE HOY A LO LARGO DE
LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DEBERA MOVERSE
SOBRE LAS AGUAS DEL ATLANTICO TARDE ESTA NOCHE.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON
RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. NO SE PRONOSTICA CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD MIENTRAS
ERNESTO ESTE SOBRE TIERRA PERO PODRIA OCURRIR ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION
EL JUEVES CUANDO EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA SOBRE EL ATLANTICO.

LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMA EN 1003 MILIBARAS...29.62
PULGADAS.

SE PUEDE ESPERAR MAREJADAS COSTERAS CICLONICAS DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE
LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LAS MAREAS EN AREAS CON UN FLUJO HACIA TIERRA
DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO.

ES POSIBLES QUE OCURRAN TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE LA COSTA ESTE DE
FLORIDA HOY Y ESTA NOCHE.

TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS PULGADAS SON POSIBLES CERCA DE
LA TRAYECTORIA DE ERNESTO SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA...CON CANTIDADES
AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS POSIBLES DESDE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL
SUR HACIA EL NORTE Y HASTA LA REGION DEL ATLANTICO MEDIO CON CANTIDADES
MAXIMAS DE 12 PULGADAS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. CANTIDADES ADICIONALES
DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 4 PULGADAS
SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA PARTE NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS.

REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM EDT...26.4 NORTE...80.9 OESTE.
MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS
SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MILIBARAS.

UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE
HURACANES A LAS 200 PM SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA MA DETALLADA A
LAS 500 PM EDT.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA

000
WTNT25 KNHC 301446
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2006

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BONITA
BEACH ON THE WEST COAST INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD
TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD
AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA NORTHWARD AND
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 80.9W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 80.9W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 81.0W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 28.5N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 31.0N 80.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.5N 79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 100SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 36.0N 79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 40.0N 78.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 44.8N 79.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 80.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT45 KNHC 301446
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS WELL-INLAND OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND WINDS
HAVE DECREASED TO 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. A FEW GUSTS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
ASSOCIATED WITH RAINBANDS. THE CLOUD PATTERN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
REMAINS ORGANIZED AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ERNESTO TO
RE-INTENSIFY ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER WATER AND THE BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME IS THAT
ERNESTO WILL REACH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AS A TROPICAL
STORM...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHWARD ABOUT 9 KNOTS AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY STEER THE CYCLONE TO
THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
HURRICANE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH BRING ERNESTO TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. ONCE INLAND AND BEYOND 48 HOURS ERNESTO
SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 26.4N 80.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 28.5N 80.5W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 31/1200Z 31.0N 80.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 33.5N 79.5W 45 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 01/1200Z 36.0N 79.0W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 02/1200Z 40.0N 78.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 03/1200Z 44.8N 79.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT35 KNHC 301739
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

...CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVING OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA
NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST TO CAPE FEAR NORTH
CAROLINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST...OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THIS ABOUT 60 MILES...95
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ON THIS TRACK THE
CENTER SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST WHILE ERNESTO IS OVER LAND
BUT SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF
ERNESTO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...26.9 N...80.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTCA45 TJSJ 301752
TCPSP5

BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 24A
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006
200 PM EDT MIERCOLES 30 DE AGOSTO DE 2006

...EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO SE MUEVE SOBRE EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE...

ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE SEBASTIAN INLET
FLORIDA HACIA EL NORTE Y NORESTE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA HASTA CAPE
FEAR CAROLINA DEL NORTE.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA.

A LAS 200 PM EDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL ERNESTO
SE ESTIMABA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 80.9 OESTE...
SOBRE LA PORCION OESTE DEL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. ESTO ES COMO A 60
MILLAS...95 KM...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE VERO BEACH FLORIDA.

LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CERCA DE 10 MPH Y
SE ESPERA QUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL CONTINUE HOY CON UN GIRO
GRADUAL AL NOR-NORESTE A LO LARGO DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA. EN
ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DEBERA MOVERSE SOBRE LAS AGUAS DEL
ATLANTICO TARDE ESTA NOCHE.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON
RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. NO SE PRONOSTICA CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD MIENTRAS
ERNESTO ESTE SOBRE TIERRA PERO PODRIA OCURRIR ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION
EL JUEVES CUANDO EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA SOBRE EL ATLANTICO.

LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMA EN 1003 MILIBARAS...29.62
PULGADAS.

SE PUEDE ESPERAR MAREJADAS COSTERAS CICLONICAS DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE
LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LAS MAREAS EN AREAS CON UN FLUJO HACIA TIERRA
DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO.

ES POSIBLES QUE OCURRAN TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE LA COSTA ESTE DE
FLORIDA HOY Y ESTA NOCHE.

TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES CERCA DE LA
TRAYECTORIA DE ERNESTO SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA...CON
CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS POSIBLES. TOTALES DE
LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES DESDE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA
DEL SUR HACIA EL NORTE HASTA LA REGION DEL ATLANTICO MEDIO CON
CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE 12 PULGADAS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.
CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA ADICIONALES DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES
AISLADAS DE 4 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA PARTE NOROESTE DE LAS
BAHAMAS.

REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 200 PM EDT...26.9 NORTE...80.9 OESTE.
MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS
SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MILIBARAS.

LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE
HURACANES A LAS 500 PM EDT.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA