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BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 30 2006

...ISAAC BECOMES THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2006 SEASON...

INTERESTS IN NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED
BY SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.7 WEST
OR ABOUT 370 MILES... 600 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK... ISAAC SHOULD PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISAAC IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...30.9 N...58.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART

El quinto huracan de la temporada.

Poco a poco Isaac ha continuado ganando intensidad, y contrario a los primeros pronosticos que lo mantenian como una tormenta con vientos de alrededor de 55-60mph, hoy Isaac se convierte en el quinto Huracan de la temporada.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

A las 5pm el estimado de de intensidad de Isaac estaba en 80mph, su organizacion ha sido lenta pero continua, y en este momento sigue luciendo como un sistema compacto y bien organizado.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-vis.html

000
WTNT34 KNHC 302032
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006
500 PM AST SAT SEP 30 2006

...ISAAC STRENGTHENS BUT IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND...

INTERESTS IN NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES...
505 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.

ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ISAAC IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...31.6 N...59.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART

000
WTCA44 TJSJ 302038
TCPSP4

BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL ISAAC ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 13
NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006
500 PM EDT SABADO 30 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006

...ISAAC SE INTENSIFCA PERO NO REPRENTA AMENAZA A TIERRA POR EL
MOMENTO...

LOS INTERESES EN NUEVA ESCOCIA Y EN NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA DEBEN ESTAR
ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ISAAC.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE
ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA
LOCAL.

A LAS 500 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN ISAAC ESTABA
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 59.5 OESTE O
COMO A 315 MILLAS...505 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE BERMUDA.

ISAAC SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17
KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE MAS TARDE
ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL DOMINGO.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 80 MPH...130
KILOMETROS CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ISAAC ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA
UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.

LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 40 MILLAS...65
KM DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE
EXTIENDEN HASTA 125 MILLAS...205 KM DEL CENTRO.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 989 MILIBARAS...29.21
PULGADAS.

REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM AST...31.6 NORTE...59.5 OESTE.
MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS
SOSTENIDOS...80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...989 MILIBARAS.

LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE
HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM AST.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE/STEWART

000
WTNT24 KNHC 302032
TCMAT4
HURRICANE ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006
2100 UTC SAT SEP 30 2006

INTERESTS IN NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 59.5W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 45SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 45SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 125SE 75SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 59.5W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 59.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 32.6N 60.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 35.0N 60.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 65NE 50SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 39.0N 60.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 65NE 75SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 44.0N 56.8W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 65NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 270SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 52.0N 46.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...320NE 240SE 150SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 59.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART

000
WTNT44 KNHC 302032
TCDAT4
HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 30 2006

CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN THE EYEWALL OF ISSAC THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER-DEFINED
WITH AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB/AFWA ARE INCREASING...
AND THE LOCAL 3 HOUR OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE NEAR T4.2... EQUATING
TO 70 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 70 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE ESTIMATES. ISAAC STILL HAS A
LITTLE MORE TIME TO INTENSIFY BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IMPACTS THE HURRICANE. STEADY WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE TOMORROW AS THE SHEAR BECOMES STRONG AND
WATERS COOL BELOW 26C. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO ICON... THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS OF
GFDL AND SHIPS. GFDL CONTINUES TO INSIST ON STRENGTHENING AFTER
RECURVATURE BUT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE DUE TO VERY STRONG SHEAR
FORECAST TO OCCUR BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS. THESE GLOBAL MODELS ALSO
EXPECT ISAAC TO BE A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW UNTIL IT IS
EVENTUALLY ABSORBED BY A LARGER MIDDLE-LATITUDE CYCLONE.

THE CYCLONE HAS SPED UP AND IS NOW MOVING ABOUT 310/9... THOUGH A
SHORTER-TERM MOTION IS FASTER. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS THE SAME
AS BEFORE. ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AT THIS POINT THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW CLOSE WILL
EXTRATROPICAL ISAAC GET TO NEWFOUNDLAND. THE ECMWF...GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN MODELS WHIP EXTRATROPICAL ISAAC AROUND A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW AND ARE... CONSEQUENTLY... FARTHER TO THE LEFT
THAN THE OTHER MODELS... WHICH KEEP ISAAC MORE SEPARATE FROM THE
LOW. GLOBAL MODELS DO AGREE THAT ITS REMNANTS WILL FORM A POWERFUL
STORM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND MIGHT BE SIMILAR TO THE STRENGTH
OF EXTRATROPICAL FLORENCE A FEW WEEKS AGO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH THE MODELS NOW HONED IN ON
RECURVATURE ALONG ABOUT 61W... AND SHOWS SOME THREAT TO
NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 2-3 DAYS AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 31.6N 59.5W 70 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 32.6N 60.3W 75 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 35.0N 60.8W 75 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 39.0N 60.0W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 02/1800Z 44.0N 56.8W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 03/1800Z 52.0N 46.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 04/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART

000
WTNT34 KNHC 010254
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 30 2006

...ISAAC TURNING A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE NORTH...

INTERESTS IN NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.9 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES...
460 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.

ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ISAAC IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...32.5 N...59.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB

000
WTNT24 KNHC 010251
TCMAT4
HURRICANE ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006
0300 UTC SUN OCT 01 2006

INTERESTS IN NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 59.9W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 125SE 75SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 59.9W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 59.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 34.0N 60.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.2N 60.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 50SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 42.0N 57.9W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 50SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 46.8N 53.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 53.0N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 56.0N 30.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 59.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB

000
WTNT44 KNHC 010257
TCDAT4
HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 30 2006

LATEST GOES IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE OF ISAAC HAS INTERMITTENTLY
APPEARING AND DISAPPEARING THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. GIVEN A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BASED ON A BLEND OF
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN 65 AND 77 KT. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN OFFSETTING FACTORS IN
THE SHORT-TERM...AND A COMPLEX INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH THEREAFTER. ISAAC HAS ABOUT 12-24 HOURS OVER WATERS OF AT
LEAST 26C. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ISAAC IS
EXPERIENCING INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE
HURRICANE WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE GLOBAL MODELS
DISAGREE ON WHETHER ISAAC WILL BE ABLE TO UTILIZE THE AVAILABLE
BAROCLINIC ENERGY TO STRENGTHEN DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...
OR INSTEAD BE ABSORBED BY A MORE DOMINANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW WHICH
COULD FORM TO ITS WEST. SHOULD ISAAC MERGE WITH A SECOND LOW...IT
WOULD PROBABLY PRODUCE A BROADER AND WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
CONVERSELY...IF ISAAC REMAINS THE DOMINANT SYSTEM...IT COULD
RE-INTENSIFY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...IN A SIMILAR MANNER TO
HELENE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS BY SHOWING SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH THE
FIRST 48 HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS SLIGHT
WEAKENING IN THE SHORT-TERM AND LITTLE CHANGE DURING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.

ISAAC IS MOVING JUST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...OR EAST...OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 330/09.
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL NORTHWARD
TURN THROUGH 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST
AS THE CYCLONE GETS CAUGHT UP IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE ECMWF...GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
ARE ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MODEL SUITE AND SHOW THE CYCLONE
MOVING OVER OR NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND. CONVERSELY...THE GFDL AND GFDN ARE
MUCH FARTHER EAST. REMAINING IN BETWEEN THOSE EXTREMES AND CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS...AND IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 32.5N 59.9W 70 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 34.0N 60.5W 70 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 37.2N 60.2W 65 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 42.0N 57.9W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 03/0000Z 46.8N 53.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 04/0000Z 53.0N 43.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 05/0000Z 56.0N 30.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 06/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB

000
WTNT34 KNHC 011448
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 01 2006

...ISAAC TURNS TO THE NORTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA
OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WHICH INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CAPE RACE AND ST.
JOHNS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES...
480 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 930 MILES...1495 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ISAAC IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...34.4 N...60.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN


000
WTCA44 TJSJ 011454
TCPSP4

BOLETIN
HURACAN ISAAC ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 16
NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL092006
1100 AM AST DOMINGO 1 DE OCTUBRE DE 2006

...ISAAC GIRA AL NORTE...

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA EL
AVALON PENINSULA DE NEWFOUNDLAND...CUAL INCLUYE LAS CIUDADES DE CAPE
RACE Y ST JOHNS.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE
ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA
LOCAL.

A LAS 1100 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN ISAAC ESTABA
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 34.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 60.3 OESTE O
COMO A 295 MILLAS...480 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE NORESTE DE BERMUDA....O
COMO A 930 MILLAS...1495 KILOMETROS AL SUR-SUROESTE DE CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.

ISAAC SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20
KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE CON UN
AUMENTO GRADUAL DE VELOCIDAD DE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24
HORAS.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 80 MPH...140
KILOMETROS CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ISAAC ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA
UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.

LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 25 MILLAS...35
KM DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE
EXTIENDEN HASTA 150 MILLAS...240 KM MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 985 MILIBARAS...29.09
PULGADAS.

REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...34.4 NORTE...60.3 OESTE.
MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS
SOSTENIDOS...80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...985 MILIBARAS.

UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE
HURACANES A LAS 200 PM AST SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS
500 PM.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN/FRANKLIN

000
WTNT24 KNHC 011449
TCMAT4
HURRICANE ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006
1500 UTC SUN OCT 01 2006

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA
OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WHICH INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CAPE RACE AND ST.
JOHNS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 60.3W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 60.3W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 60.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.2N 59.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 42.0N 57.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 47.0N 53.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 50.5N 48.7W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 60.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN

000
WTNT44 KNHC 011455
TCDAT4
HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006
1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 01 2006

THE EYE FEATURE OF ISAAC HAS BECOME MUCH LESS DEFINED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO
HAVE SOME EFFECT ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 65 AND 75 KT AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS
SUPPORTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 70 KT...WHICH IS THE ESTIMATED
INITIAL INTENSITY. ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SHEAR AND MUCH COOLER SSTS DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. FSU PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW THAT ISAAC WILL TRANISITION INTO A EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN
NOT MORE THAN 24-36 HOURS.

THE CURRENT MOTION IS 355/11. IT APPEARS THAT ISAAC IS BEGINNING TO
ACCELERATE AND TURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
THAT IS APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. ALL OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE OVER OR VERY NEAR
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE GFS AND UKMET
MODELS REMAIN ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WHILE THE GFDL IS
TO THE EAST AND KEEPS ISAAC OFFSHORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS
TOWARDS THE GFS/UKMET SOLUTION AND IS A LITTLE WEST OF THE GUNA
MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER PASSING NEWFOUNDLAND...THE MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON WHICH LOW BECOMES DOMINANT...THE EXTRATROPICAL
REMNANT OF ISAAC OR THE BAROCLINIC LOW MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THE SMALLER ISAAC WILL
BECOME ABSORBED BY THE LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW AND THE 72 HOUR
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 34.4N 60.3W 70 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 37.2N 59.8W 70 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 42.0N 57.2W 65 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 47.0N 53.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 03/1200Z 50.5N 48.7W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 04/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN

000
WTNT34 KNHC 012043
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006
500 PM AST SUN OCT 01 2006

...ISAAC MOVING TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA
OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WHICH INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CAPE RACE AND ST.
JOHNS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 36.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.0 WEST OR ABOUT 800 MILES...
1290 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ISAAC IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT NEARS NEWFOUNDLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145
MILES...230 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...36.3 N...60.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN