Se que el tema de este topico es historia de los huracanes en Puerto Rico pero me parece interesante recordar el paso del huracan Andrew el 24 de agosto de 1992. El pasado viernes se cumplieron 15 años del azote de el tercer huracan Categoria 5 en tocar territorio en Estados Unidos y el ultimo en entrar como Cat 5 a tierra hasta hace unas semanas que Dean le quito esa "distincion". Voy a repasar algunos de los avisos que se postearon para Andrew de parte del NHC.
1. Primer avisoZCZC MIAWRKAP4 LOC
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN AUG 16 1992
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC...
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER THE
ATLANTIC MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. AT 11 PM
AST...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1525 MILES...2455 KM...EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...AND
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...11.2 N... 38.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD
...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM AST...MONDAY.
MAYFIELD
2. Cuando se convierte tormenta tropical, el primero nombrado de la temporada 1992.
ZCZC MIAWRKAP4 LOC
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDREW ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON AUG 17 1992
....FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IN THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC HAS STRENGTHENED DURING THE MORNING AND IS NOW TROPICAL
STORM ANDREW.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF ANDREW WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1175 MILES
...1890 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ANDREW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 25 MPH
...41 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...AND
SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...13.0 N... 43.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD
...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM AST.
GERRISH
3. Primera discusion de Andrew
ZCZC MIAWRKAD4 LOC
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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN AUG 16 1992
SATELLITE ANALYSTS AT BOTH SAB AND NHC HAVE BEEN CLASSIFYING THE
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE DVORAK CI NUMBER HAS BEEN 2.0 FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. METEOSAT
IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A BANDING TYPE PATTERN AND DEEP CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED CLOSE TO THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER...ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ISSUING DEPRESSION ADVISORIES.
NMC AVIATION MODEL INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE DEEP EASTERLIES...AND ALL TRACK MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT. INITIAL MOTION IS 280/18 AND THIS SAME GENERAL MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THE AVIATION MODEL ALSO INDICATES STRONG 200 MB WINDS FROM THE EAST
OVER THE SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING. IF
THE SHEAR IS LIGHTER THAN FORECAST...MORE STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR.
MAYFIELD
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0300Z 11.2N 38.3W 30 KTS
12HR VT 17/1200Z 11.6N 41.0W 35 KTS
24HR VT 18/0000Z 12.2N 44.6W 35 KTS
36HR VT 18/1200Z 13.0N 48.3W 40 KTS
48HR VT 19/0000Z 13.7N 51.9W 40 KTS
72HR VT 20/0000Z 15.0N 59.0W 45 KTS
4. Cuando lo catalogaban como pobremente organizadoZCZC MIAWRKAP4 LOC
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDREW ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU AUG 20 1992
...POORLY ORGANIZED ANDREW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWEST...
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
ANDREW REMAINS RATHER DISORGANIZED.
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF ANDREW WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.0 WEST OR ABOUT
225 MILES...360 KM...NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
ANDREW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH ...26 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL DIRECTION OF MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH
SOME SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...AND
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 MB...29.91 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...21.0 N... 61.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD
...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM AST.
PASCH
5. Cuando postearon avisos de huracan para diferentes areas en la Florida
ZCZC MIAWRKAD4 LOC
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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE ANDREW SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 1992
A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO POST HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE TRACK
REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT THE WINDS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED BASED ON LATEST RECON DATA. LAST PRESSURE WAS 922 MB.
THE AIRCRAFT ALSO FLEW TO THE NW OF THE HURRICANE AT LOW LEVELS TO
DETERMINE THE BEST ESTIMATE OF RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
...AND BASED ON THIS INFORMATION THE RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS IS INCREASED TO 90 NMI.
MAYFIELD
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/1800Z 25.4N 75.8W 130 KTS
12HR VT 24/0000Z 25.4N 77.3W 130 KTS
24HR VT 24/1200Z 25.5N 80.3W 130 KTS
36HR VT 25/0000Z 26.1N 83.3W 110 KTS
48HR VT 25/1200Z 26.9N 86.2W 110 KTS
72HR VT 26/1200Z 28.5N 91.0W 115 KTS
6. Acercandose a Florida como Cat 4
ZCZC MIAWRKAP4 LOC
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANDREW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 1992
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ANDREW BEARING DOWN ON SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA...
HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH
OF VENICE...AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE...AND ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
NORTH OF VENICE TO BAYPORT.
ALL PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY...INCLUDING EVACUATIONS
ORDERED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF ANDREW WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES
...300 KM...EAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.
ANDREW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT
THE PRESENT TIME. A WIND GUST TO 120 MPH WAS REPORTED AS THE CENTER
PASSED OVER THE NORTHERN END OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND. ON THE PRESENT
COURSE...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN ON THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
THE PREDAWN HOURS.
THIS IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 145 MPH...235 KM/HR...IN A SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 923 MB...27.26 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NW BAHAMAS...WITH UP TO 18 FEET
POSSIBLE FOR THE NW SIDE OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND. STORM SURGES OF 7 TO
10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
AND KEYS NEAR TO WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE HEIGHTS OF 9 TO 13 FEET IN BISCAYNE BAY.
STORM SURGES OF 7 TO 11 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
HURRICANE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF
THE HURRICANE.
REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...25.4 N... 77.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD
...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 923 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.
MAYFIELD
7. Ya entrando a FloridaZCZC MIAWRKAP4 LOC
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANDREW ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 AM EDT MON AUG 24 1992
...OUTER RAINBANDS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ANDREW SPREADING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COASTLINE...
HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA
KEYS TO THE DRY TORTUGAS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST SOUTH OF VENICE...AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH
AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE...AND ON THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST NORTH OF VENICE TO BAYPORT. THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
RADAR DATA...SATELLITE PICTURES...AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ANDREW IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE CENTER OF ANDREW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND NEAR MIAMI AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
ALREADY BEING OBSERVED AT FOWEY ROCKS LIGHTHOUSE.
AT 1 AM EDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF ANDREW WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES
...140 KM...EAST OF MIAMI.
ANDREW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR... AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...225 KM/HR...AND
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. STORM
SURGES OF 7 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY FOR THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST AND KEYS NEAR TO WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE HEIGHTS OF 9 TO 13 FEET IN
BISCAYNE BAY. STORM SURGES OF 7 TO 11 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE HURRICANE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF THE
HURRICANE.
A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
TODAY.
REPEATING THE 1 AM EDT POSITION...25.4 N... 78.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD
...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 941 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 3 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY ISSUANCE
AT 5 AM EDT.
RAPPAPORT/GERRISH/PASCH
Que recuerdos no?? Andrew se catalogo en un principio como un huracan Cat 4 cuando entro al sur de la Florida pero 10 años despues en el 2002 se reclasifico como un huracan Categoria 5 al momento de entrar al sur de la Florida. Su ojo no paso directamente por donde se encontraban las oficinas del NHC en esa epoca pero arranco el radar WSR-57 del techo de esa dependencia al medir una rafaga de 167mph. Esta fue la ultima imagen del radar
En el 2002 se dio a conocer que la intensidad de los vientos de Andrew fue de alrededor de 165mph al entrar a tierra en la Florida y la presion barometrica de 922 (aunque ese dato de la presion ya se tenia) ( la tercera mas baja registrada en suelo de Estados Unidos, despues del Labor Day Hurricane(Florida Keys Hurricane) de 1935 con 892 mb y el huracan Camille en 1969 con 909mb (los otros dos categoria 5 en azotar directamente los Estados Unidos.). Actualmente es el cuarto pues Katrina le arrebato el tercer lugar con 920mb. Oficialmente causo 26 muertes directas y el total entre muertes directas e indirectas fue de 65. En el libro Hurricane Watch: Forecasting the deadliest storms on earth, en el cual uno de los autores es el Dr. Robert(Bob) Sheets( quien era el director del NHC en ese momento) hay un excelente capitulo dedicado al Huracan Andrew. Se los recomiendo. Se que el tema ahora es el Invest 94L y las bajas presiones que predice el GFS para septiembre pero me parece interesante recordar este evento aunque no nos haya afectado directamente a nosotros. Podria ser que algun dia algo asi pasara en Puerto Rico. Perdonen que el mensaje sea tan largo pero quise dar una historia mas completa sobre este fenomeno. Aqui pueden encontrar el informe oficial de Andrew del NHC.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1992andrew.html
Maria
