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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED JUST EAST OF COSTA
RICA IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO
50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

WHXX01 KWBC 031220
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1220 UTC TUE NOV 3 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972009) 20091103 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091103 1200 091104 0000 091104 1200 091105 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.0N 81.5W 10.5N 82.3W 10.9N 83.2W 11.4N 84.2W
BAMD 10.0N 81.5W 10.7N 81.5W 11.3N 81.9W 12.0N 82.6W
BAMM 10.0N 81.5W 10.5N 81.8W 11.0N 82.4W 11.7N 83.3W
LBAR 10.0N 81.5W 10.7N 82.0W 11.8N 82.9W 13.2N 83.8W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 30KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091105 1200 091106 1200 091107 1200 091108 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.7N 85.1W 12.5N 86.6W 13.4N 87.9W 14.1N 89.4W
BAMD 13.0N 83.4W 14.9N 84.8W 17.3N 85.4W 19.2N 85.5W
BAMM 12.4N 84.2W 13.5N 86.1W 14.8N 87.5W 15.4N 89.1W
LBAR 14.8N 84.6W 16.9N 85.4W 17.9N 83.8W 17.8N 81.8W
SHIP 33KTS 38KTS 38KTS 37KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 81.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 9.9N LONM12 = 80.9W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 9.7N LONM24 = 80.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

RJH wrote:Hola a todos!

Hace varias semanas no me conectaba ,pues estaba fuera del pais y no tenia mucho tiempo pa enrar a escribir en el foro, este sistema que esta ceca de centro america, quisas pueda ser un surdo, pues algunos modelos lo mueven al noreste, veremos a ver q pasa, pero al menos mirando bien , la circulacion no se ve tan mal.

saludos a todos!! y feliz navidad jejej( ya empesaron)

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH LIMITED IN EXTENT...HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF
COSTA RICA IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER
PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Code: Select all

DATE/TIME     LAT      LON      CLASSIFICATION       STORM
03/2345 UTC   10.4N     80.9W       T1.5/1.5         97L
03/1745 UTC   10.3N     81.1W       T1.5/1.5         97L
03/1345 UTC   10.2N     81.4W       T1.0/1.0         97L

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST WED NOV 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME TODAY. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND
HONDURAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 AM EST WED NOV 04 2009

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO NOW BE
CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT A NEW
BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER WITH BANDING
FEATURES BECOMING MORE DISTINGUISHED. TAFB/SAB DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 2.0...30 KT...AT 1200 UTC...AND THAT INTENSITY
WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED. IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING...HOWEVER...IF THIS SYSTEM WERE ALREADY A TROPICAL STORM
DUE TO THE IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE
WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION USED FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 315/7...THOUGH IT IS
UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS IS TRULY REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO THE CENTER
REFORMATION THAT APPEARED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT. STEERING CURRENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
DEPRESSION IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A WEAK MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF DIVERGENCE ON
THE EXPECTED PATH OF THE DEPRESSION. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE. HOWEVER...SOME OF
THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND UKMET...SHOW THE
SYSTEM MOVING CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH ONLY A NORTHWARD DRIFT.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR BUT SLIGHTLY TO
THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER
ENVIRONMENT...ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND AND UNCERTAIN TRACK FORECAST
LEADS TO A COMPLEX INTENSITY FORECAST. THE GFDL...ONE OF THE ONLY
MODELS THAT KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE...MAKES THE SYSTEM A
HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...NEITHER THE SHIPS NOR THE LGEM
MODELS SHOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION AT ALL. THESE MODELS SEEM TO BE A
LITTLE UNDERDONE...AND THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...THOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS THE GFDL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 11.6N 82.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 11.9N 82.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 12.5N 83.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 13.0N 83.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 13.5N 84.0W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 07/1200Z 14.5N 84.5W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 08/1200Z 15.5N 85.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 09/1200Z 18.0N 85.5W 35 KT...OVER WATER

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN