The Cycloman PR Hurricanes and Meteorology Forums

by **hurricanetrack** on Thu Nov 05, 2009 7:36 pm

Vean el GFS a las 18Z....

...Interesante...aunque creerle es practicamente imposible. :lol:

by **albertopr** on Thu Nov 05, 2009 8:21 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:Vean el GFS a las 18Z.... ...Interesante...aunque creerle es practicamente imposible.

Ojala nos diera un regalito así

.. yo hubiera esperado algo así días atrás... pero si Ida se hubiera quedado estacionaria.. en esa gráfica (http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml) un frente de frío sería quien lo empujaría al este... Saludos!

Reportaje sobre Ida en Nicaragua..

Más de 6.000 damnificados por 'Ida' en Caribe de Nicaragua
El fenómeno, degradado a tormenta tropical, golpeó con más fuerza las comunidades de Sandy Bay, Karawala y la Barra de Río Grande
elnuevodiario.com.ni
AFP - MANAGUA - 12:15 - 05/11/2009

Más de 6.000 nativos de la costa Caribe de Nicaragua se vieron afectados hoy por las fuertes lluvias, vientos, inundaciones y destrucción provocados por el huracán 'Ida', degradado a tomenta tropical tras tocar tierra en la comunidad de Sandy Bay Sirpe, 126 km al norte de Bluefields y 112 km al sur de Puerto Cabezas, informó el coronel Mario Perezcassar, jefe de Defensa Civil.

Los vientos de 'Ida' se redujeron a los 100 km/h y "se espera un debilitamiento adicional" del fenómeno en las próximas horas mientras avanza sobre el territorio nicaragüense, indicó el Centro Nacional de Huracanes de Estados Unidos (NHC), con sede en Miami.

Las comunidades costeras más dañadas por el ciclón son Sandy Bay Sirpe, Karawala y la Barra de Río Grande, donde se estima viven alrededor de 2.000 personas, preció Perezcassar. Según reportes preliminares, el ciclón también sacudió fuertemente en su entrada por el Caribe a las comunidades caribeñas de Laguna de Perlas, El Tortuguero, Kukra Hill y Prinzapolka, cuya población logró en su mayoría refugiarse en medio de las fuertes lluvias en escuelas y albergues temporales. "En todas estas comunidades viven unas 6.000 personas", y por el momento "no hay muertos, ni heridos", aunque "consideramos pudo haber causado mucho daño en la infraestructura", aseveró el jefe militar.

Las inundaciones desbordaron también al Río Grande de Matagalpa, que desemboca cerca de la zona donde impactó el ciclón en el mar Caribe, donde se cree hay "muchas comunidades inundadas", adelantó Perezcasar, que organiza el envío de cuatro helicópteros MI-17 y un avión a la zona con ayuda, en cuanto cesen las fuertes lluvias.

El alcalde de Karawala, cercano a Sandy Bay, Junior Colleman, afirmó en comunicación telefónica con la Defensa Civil en Managua que "casi el 80% de las casas, iglesias y escuelas están destruidas". "No tenemos heridos ni desaparecidos. En todas las comunidades hay destrucción", agregó. Según Coleman, en La Barra de Río Grande todas las casas permanecían inundadas y el agua cubría hasta la torre de la iglesia de esa comunidad.

Hay lugares críticos como en los Cayos Miskitos, frente al litoral; en el cayo Clarakin hay 42 personas que por la rapidez con que ocurrió todo no pudieron ser evacuados, informaron fuentes de socorro. En Laguna de Perlas, el director de Radio Caribean Pearl, George Leiva, reporta la caída de la antena de esa emisora y la interrupción del servicio energético tras la caída de varios postes de luz.

En Corn Island, donde 'Ida' pasó como tormenta antes de convertirse en huracán, dejó postes de energía y árboles derribados, el servicio telefónico interrumpido y no hay agua, según organismos de socorro. Unos 300 turistas habían sido evacuados ayer de esta isla turística, según la Defensa Civil.

El alcalde de Corn Island, Cleveland Webster, explicó que tuvieron que evacuar a mil 100 personas de las zonas costeras por el fuerte oleaje, especialmente en los barrios Brig Bay, Poutland Point y Promar. Webster afirmó hoy vía telefónica que algunos damnificados estaban regresando a sus casas, al mismo tiempo que solicitó víveres y una planta eléctrica para reactivar la aguadora ya que los pozos están contaminados por el desbordamiento de humedales y letrinas.

'Ida' se convirtió en huracán a las seis de la mañana (hora local) pero desde la tarde de ayer dejó caer fuertes lluvias en las comunidades próximas donde impactó. "El gobierno de Nicaragua ha remplazado la alerta de huracán por una advertencia de tormenta tropical", indicaron los expertos, previendo que 'Ida' se debilitará aún más mientras recorre el este de Nicaragua y Honduras en los próximos días.

(Con la colaboración de Heberto Jarquín y Nery García)

http://www.prensaescrita.com/diarios.ph ... rio.com.ni

by **Cycloneye** on Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:16 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 PM EST THU NOV 05 2009

...IDA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES...

AT 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST OR ABOUT
50 MILES... 80 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IDA MOVES OVER LAND. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY AFTER IDA EMERGES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON
SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...AND THE
ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER REGIONS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN IN HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

...SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.8N 84.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

000
WTNT41 KNHC 060241
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 PM EST THU NOV 05 2009

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT IDA HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. WHAT REMAINS OF THE
DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO NORTHWEST AND
NORTHEAST QUADRANTS. SOME FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IDA CONTINUES ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK
OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS. AROUND THE 36
HOUR PERIOD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD EMERGE OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA AND...ASSUMING THE CIRCULATION IS NOT TOO SEVERELY
DISRUPTED BY ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND...THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESTRENGTHEN
INTO A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE ONLY A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
REGION...WHICH SHOULD CURTAIL SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AS IDA
HEADS IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AFTER IDA
ENTERS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO....THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL AGREE ON AN
INCREASINGLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE FORMER...SHOW SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION OF IDA IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD. IT SHOULD
BE RECALLED HOWEVER THAT THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO HAVE A
HIGH BIAS IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENTS...AS WAS THE CASE WITH
TROPICAL STORMS DANNY...ERIKA...AND HENRI OF THIS YEAR.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD
THE WEAKER LGEM AND SHIPS PREDICTIONS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 330/4...WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY
STEERING FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FORWARD SPEED DISPARITIES...THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS.
AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD...MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A
TURN TO THE RIGHT AS IDA BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE WESTERLIES.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO WILL LIKELY BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
CAUSED BY EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 13.8N 84.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 14.4N 84.1W 25 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 07/0000Z 15.4N 84.2W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 07/1200Z 16.6N 84.5W 35 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 08/0000Z 17.7N 85.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 09/0000Z 20.3N 86.2W 45 KT
96HR VT 10/0000Z 23.0N 87.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 11/0000Z 26.0N 87.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

by **albertopr** on Fri Nov 06, 2009 10:30 pm

Ya el centro de Ida ha salido de Honduras y se mueve al norte, hacia el golfo de México. El pronóstico oficial lo vuelve a intensificar como tormenta, con vientos máximos de 57mph en 48 horas, disipándolo en 120 horas(debido al shear y a la temperatura de las aguas)... mientras el GFDl 18Z ve un Huracán en 36 horas, intensificándolo a categoría 3 en 102 horas(http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation). Las aguas están sobre los 84 grados cerca de la Península de Yucatán, pero mucho mas frías en el Golfo de México(mas al norte, mas frías) (http://img291.imageshack.us/img291/1732/xcvk.jpg). Por el momento, la mayoría de los modelos señala que el disturbio se moverá entre NW y N cerca de la Península de Yucatán y luego entre N, NE, E hacia la Florida(http://img196.imageshack.us/img196/6095/xxxxb.gif).

Se actualiza:

by **David79** on Sat Nov 07, 2009 1:49 am

Hmmm...

Nebuloso el panorama de traslacion de este sistema :roll:

Hay alta presion al Sureste de EE.UU. y entonces...tenemos el frente Frio ( y este se ve frio hasta por satelite) que viene bajando.

En un mundo ideal (de IDA..) esta deberia moverse mas a la derecha subiria al Noroeste de Cuba para luego, empujado por la alta presion y combinado con el frente frio bajar en direccion Sureste con la misma trayectoria de Georges, pero en reversa...no importa si como disturbio o depresion o extratropical o como lo que lo que le de la real gana...

Pero AAAAAAAALGO que nos tooooooooque antes de que llegue lo del... *^%#@* Pavo!!!

by **albertopr** on Sat Nov 07, 2009 7:24 am

Vuelve a ser Tormenta:
000
WTNT41 KNHC 070857
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
400 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IDA HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE ESTIMATED
LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED
TO 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM SAB AND
45 KT FROM TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/07...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.
IDA IS MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48
HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH THAT TIME IS CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS BUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE
THE DETAILS ON THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN IDA
AND THE TROUGH DIFFER...MOST OF THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE NOGAPS AND GFDN...SHOW IDA TURNING NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. IDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL DURING THIS TIME AS IT BECOMES INVOLVED WITH A
LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. BY DAY 5
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT...AND WHAT IS LEFT OF IDA...
TURNING SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SCALE MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. AT
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 THE NEW OFFICIAL THE FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WHILE IDA WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING...AS
THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS ABOUT 20 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE
CYCLONE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
FURTHER AS IDA BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD A LITTLE GIVEN
THE OBSERVED INTENSITY TRENDS...AND SHOWS A PEAK OF 50 KT IN 36
HOURS. THIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND CLOSE TO
THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ON DAY 2 AS IDA ENCOUNTERS THE STRONGER SHEAR AND BEGINS TO
UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A LARGE AREA OF
STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NOT DIRECTLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO
IDA.

THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME FOR
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0900Z 17.1N 84.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 18.1N 84.4W 45 KT
24HR VT 08/0600Z 19.5N 85.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 08/1800Z 21.0N 86.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 09/0600Z 23.0N 87.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 10/0600Z 26.5N 88.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 11/0600Z 28.0N 86.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 12/0600Z 27.0N 85.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

by **albertopr** on Sat Nov 07, 2009 7:32 am

La mayoría de los modelos se han alineado en una ruta al N/NW y luego al N/NE, E y SE despues de la latitud 25. Muchos disipan el sistema, pero el GFDL y el HWRF sigue viendo un huracán...

by **Javier** on Sat Nov 07, 2009 4:14 pm

000
WTNT31 KNHC 071752
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
100 PM EST SAT NOV 07 2009

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND IDA STRONGER...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE
OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WESTERN
CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST OR ABOUT
230 MILES...370 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 230
MILES...370 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IDA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT BUT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER IDA ENTERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY NORTH FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

...SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.5N 84.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI/BLAKE

by **Javier** on Sat Nov 07, 2009 6:20 pm

000
WTNT41 KNHC 072056
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
400 PM EST SAT NOV 07 2009

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF IDA HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND THE CENTER A LITTLE NORTH OF THE
EARLIER ESTIMATES...WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. THE PLANE MEASURED A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 68
KT AND A SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 60 KT. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 60 KT. CIRRUS ELEMENTS ARE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...
SUGGESTING MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
CYCLONE. HOWEVER IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SHEAR WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH IN THE SHORT-TERM TO INHIBIT SOME ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION. IDA WILL BE TRAVERSING THE VERY WARM WATER OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW
UNANIMOUSLY PREDICTS IDA TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 12
HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. AFTER IDA REACHES
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND WATERS
BEGIN TO COOL. THESE FACTORS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MORE STEADY
WEAKENING.

IDA HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED
TODAY. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD REMAINS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE EASTWARD PRIMARILY DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD
INITIAL POSITION AND HEADING. THEREAFTER...THERE REMAINS
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO HOW IDA INTERACTS
WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 12Z GFS...ECMWF...AND HWRF
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CYCLONE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN
ABOUT 72 HOURS AS IT BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND
HAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD. THE NEW TRACK NOW SHOWS A
POSITION JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 3 DAYS.
THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS THE CYCLONE EASTWARD...AND
SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BY 120 HOURS...SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT PROVIDE A 5-DAY POSITION FOR THIS
REASON.

MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO A LARGE AREA OF
STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IS NOT DIRECTLY
ATTRIBUTABLE TO IDA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/2100Z 18.9N 84.3W 60 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 20.1N 84.8W 75 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 21.6N 85.8W 70 KT
36HR VT 09/0600Z 23.8N 87.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 09/1800Z 26.3N 88.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 10/1800Z 29.5N 87.3W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 11/1800Z 29.5N 86.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

by **albertopr** on Sat Nov 07, 2009 9:42 pm

Ahi esta.. ya el NHC se une al GFDL y el HWRF.. ahora ven un huracán en las próximas horas...

Modelos: http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/ ... ab21260387

by **Cycloneye** on Sun Nov 08, 2009 7:31 am

BOLETIN
HURACAN IDA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 17...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL112009
300 AM EST DOMINGO 8 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009

...IDA SE MUEVE HACIA EL NOROESTE...SE MOVERA CERCA DE LA PENINSULA
DEL YUCATAN TARDE HOY...

UN AVISO DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN
DE MEXICO DESDE PLAYA DEL CARMEN HASTA CABO CATOCHE. AVISO DE
HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA
BAJO AVISO...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 24 HORAS. PREPARACION PARA
SALVAR VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBERAN COMPLETARSE EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO.

VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA PENINSULA DE
YUCATAN EN MEXICO DESDE TULUM A CABO CATOCHE. VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES
EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA.

AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS GRAN
CAYMAN.

AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA LA PENINSULA DEL YUCATAN
DESDE PUNTA ALLEN HACIA EL NORTE HASTA SAN FELIPE. AVISO DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES
EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 24 HORAS.

AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA LA PROVINCIA CUBANA DE
PINAR DEL RIO.

AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA ISLE OF YOUTH.

PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...VERIFIQUE
LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA FUERA DE LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS...POR FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO
METEOROLOGICO NACIONAL.

A LAS 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN IDA ESTABA
LOCALIZADO POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.6 OESTE O CERCA
DE 85 MILLAS...135 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE CONZUMEL MEXICO Y A 95
MILLAS...150 KM...AL SUR DEL OESTE DE CUBA.

IDA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE CERCA DE 12 MPH...19
KM/HORA. UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE NORTEOESTE Y LUEGO AL NORTE SE
ESPERA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE
TRANSLACION. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE IDA SE
MOVERA A TRAVES DEL CANAL DEL YUCATAN Y SOBRE EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO
DE MEXICO TARDE HOY...PASANDO CERCA DE LA ESQUINA NORESTE DE LA
PENINSULA DE YUCATAN.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. IDA ES CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA
SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL EN LAS
PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...IDA PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS
MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. UN DEBILITAMIENTO GRADUAL SE ESPER QUE
COMIENCE TARDE EL LUNES.

LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN FUERA DEL CENTRO
HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KILOMETROS... Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN FUERA DEL CENTRO HASTA 140
MILLAS...220 KILOMETROS.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES DE
LA RESERVA DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DE 984 MB...28.06 PULGADAS.

SE ESPERA QUE IDA OCASIONE TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE
PORCIONES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL OESTE DE CUBA...CON
CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 10 PULGADAS. DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA SON
POSIBLES EN ISLAS CAYMAN.

...RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 3 AM CST...
LOCALIZACION...20.5 NORTE 85.6 OESTE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...90 MPH
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOROESTE O 325 GRADOS A 12 MPH
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...984 MILIBARAS

LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO
NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 6 AM CST SEGUIDO POR UNA ADVERTENCIA
COMPLETA A LAS 9 AM CST.

by **albertopr** on Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:27 am

Buenos Días..

Ahí está, 90mph, categoría uno casi dos... GFDL, HWRF han pronosticado la intensidad bien... Hace 36 horas, aproximadamente, el GFDL decía que ya para esta hora sería un huracán, mientras el NHC lo mantenía con vientos de 51mph, alcanzando una velocidad máxima de 57mph en 48horas(o sea para esta noche).

albertopr wrote:Ya el centro de Ida ha salido de Honduras y se mueve al norte, hacia el golfo de México. El pronóstico oficial lo vuelve a intensificar como tormenta, con vientos máximos de 57mph en 48 horas, disipándolo en 120 horas(debido al shear y a la temperatura de las aguas)... mientras el GFDl 18Z ve un Huracán en 36 horas, intensificándolo a categoría 3 en 102 horas

Huracán Ida, categoría 1, 90mph:

Modelos: http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/ ... ab21260387

by **Eguie** on Sun Nov 08, 2009 11:37 am

Viendo las imágenes de radar de Cancún se puede ver la pared del ojo por lo que no me cabe duda que será cat.2 más tarde hoy y lo interesante es que se trata de una circulación muy pequeña que está a mitad de camino entre Yucatán y Pinar del Rio y no toca a ninguno de los dos manteniéndose en el agua.

Este chiquillo que vino a ponerle un espectacular broche final a esta insípida temporada todavía puede sorprendernos y crecerse para impresionarnos. Ya veremos.

by **Eguie** on Sun Nov 08, 2009 2:57 pm

000
WTNT31 KNHC 081758
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IDA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1200 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

...HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...IDA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...

AT 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA. A
HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA. THIS WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN AND FROM
CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...
155 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 MILES...
125 KM...WEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
LIKELY BY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK....THE CENTER OF IDA
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...AND BE NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BY TUESDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...
160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IDA IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON TUESDAY AS IT
NEARS THE GULF COAST...BUT IT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.

RAINS WILL BE INCREASING WELL IN ADVANCE OF IDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF COAST...BUT WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER BY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD
INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

...SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...21.7N 86.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1200 PM CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300
PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS

by **albertopr** on Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:30 pm

Categoría 2, 105mph:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 082353
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
600 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

...IDA SLIGHTLY STRONGER...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM
GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA. THIS WATCH DOES NOT
INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR MONDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...
225 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT
445 MILES...720 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
IDA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
AND BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...
165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AND IDA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM AIRCRAFT DATA IS
979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.

RAINS WILL BE INCREASING WELL IN ADVANCE OF IDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF COAST...BUT WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER BY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD
INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

...SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...23.1N 86.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
900 PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

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